The Signals Are Talking

A new application emerges in a small research laboratory. Is it a curious fringe phenomenon, a short-lived hype or the start of a development that changes entire industries? In hindsight, turning points often seem obvious. As they emerge, they compete with thousands of other observations.

Amy Webb describes strategic foresight as systematic work with signals, patterns and uncertainty. The goal is not to predict one future, but to notice changes earlier and prepare decisions for several plausible developments.

1. Look for signals beyond your familiar field of view

Early signals often emerge at the fringes: in scientific publications, patents, start-ups, art, regulation, changing uses or new terms. A signal is initially only an observation pointing to possible change.

Those who look exclusively at their own industry often recognise only established developments. A broad scan therefore examines adjacent technologies, societal needs, economic shifts, environmental conditions and political decisions.

2. From an interesting finding to a robust pattern

One spectacular news story is not yet a trend. A signal becomes more relevant when similar indications appear independently, strengthen over time and are supported by identifiable drivers. Counter-signals matter equally: observations that contradict a simple trend narrative.

Examination should consider source quality, timeframe, affected groups and incentives. Who benefits from presenting a development as inevitable? Which technical, social or regulatory prerequisite would need to occur? This turns enthusiasm or fear into a testable hypothesis.

3. Translate several futures into today's decisions

Signals gain strategic value through scenarios. What might happen if a development accelerates sharply, progresses slowly, is regulated or encounters a counter-movement? Several plausible stories prevent a preferred picture from quietly becoming a forecast.

Options for action can then be examined: which decision makes sense across several scenarios? Where do we need a small experiment? Which additional signal would indicate that we should change our assumption? Foresight thereby becomes an ongoing learning process.

Your exercise: examine a signal

Choose an observation that seems relevant to the future:

1. Minute 1 – signal. Describe only what is concretely observable, with source and date – without claiming a trend yet.
2. Minute 2 – pattern. Note two independent indications, a possible driver and a counter-signal.
3. Minute 3 – scenario. Formulate two different plausible developments and one sign for each that would show which is becoming more likely.

Derive a small, reversible action that creates learning value today without betting on a single future.

What we take from this

Strategic foresight connects curiosity with methodological scepticism. In WEITER7 , signals support the future vision and reality check; scenarios then lead to small experiments that generate new information.

Which weak signal should I keep observing – and which contrary development could challenge my present interpretation?

Context: This insight summarises selected core ideas from Webb's approach to strategic foresight in our own words. The exercise and WEITER7 connection are our own adaptations. Signals and scenarios do not guarantee accurate predictions. Selection, interpretation and data access can be biased; robust foresight needs diverse perspectives, documented assumptions and regular updating.

Sources and further reading: Book description and bibliographic details ↗ · Amy Webb's Future Today Strategy Group ↗